Pete Sell V. Matt Brown:

Pete Sell is coming off a win vs. Josh Burkman.  A solid three round decision which may have saved his UFC career.  Now, Sell has a tough as nails fight against a tenacious Matt Brown at UFC 96 this weekend.  So, how does he get it done? 

Drago’s instinct is to stand and out-bang his opponent.  That may not cut it here - or would allow him to get caught as much as it would allow him to finish Brown.  A 50/50 proposition the old Drago would likely be all for.  However, after talking to Drago several times over the past six months, he realizes career longevity may lie in having a game plan.  

This leads us to talk about his time with Matt Serra at Serra Jiu Jitsu.  These two are old friends and Sell is a guy who walked in off the street years ago to Ray Longo and Matt Serra and they have nurtured him to date.  Every day around 1pm during training camp Sell is dripping wet on the mats with Serra drilling him on every imaginable scenario.  I have witnessed these sessions and it is not for the feint of heart.  With three of Serra’s best rotating in on Pete, it is a marathon in BJJ at the highest level and Drago is rarely the one tapping.  The kid is a black belt - remember.  

Why am I telling you all this.  Because Sell just might be scanning Brown’s record and notice five of his seven losses have come due to submission.  Sell will bring a game plan and often overlooked black belt into the octagon. Match that with Brown’s history of tapping-out and I believe Drago will be looking to use his standup to set up a take down and work the Jiu Jitsu.  

Now, I also propose Sell would be naive to believe Brown’s ground game is at the same level as before the UFC show - when all five of those submission’s occurred.  Brown has dedicated his life to the sport since gaining entry to the UFC and working in Cincy with Gurgel, Hazlett and crew surely has his BJJ at a high level.  Thus, Sell’s job is even more difficult.

With the world expecting the old Drago to appear with fists flying - I think he uses those hands to get to the ground and work a submission.  This is toss-up fight in Vegas.  Sell wins … in a brutally tough fight. 

Just one man’s opinion.